The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio, which was 100% in 2018 ballooned to 130% in 2020. With debt overtaking total economic output, Mozambique has little fiscal space to provide a robust response and recovery from the pandemic.
The coronavirus pandemic is just the latest of Mozambique’s woes. The country continues to recover from cyclone Idai which struck in March 2019, and during which 607 people lost their lives and thousands were displaced.
Like Mozambique, many poor and heavily indebted African countries such as Angola, Cabo Verde, Congo, Djibouti and Egypt–all with a higher than 100% external debt-to-GDP ratio–must now, amid a pandemic, decide how to navigate significant financial difficulties.
An African Union, AU study on the economic impact of coronavirus released in April 2020 showed that the continent could lose up to $500 billion and that countries may be forced to borrow heavily to survive after the pandemic.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has also warned that some “50 million people risk falling into extreme poverty in 2020 owing to the pandemic[SM1] .” Mr. Guterres has appealed for a “global response package amounting to at least 10% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product. For Africa, that means more than $200 billion as additional support from the international community.”
[SM1]When did he say this? If this is from his June remarks or elsewhere? Also clarify if he said “an additional” 50 million people.
Africa needs at least $100 billion to respond to coronavirus, including for social safety nets for people, and another $100 billion for economic stimulus, according to the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).[SM1]
African countries’ lack of fiscal space to tackle the pandemic and its aftermath could be attributed to four challenges, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The first challenge is high debt-to-GDP levels, which are unsustainable.
The second is that high fiscal deficits (gaps between spending and revenues) will force countries to explore alternative financing for development projects. Consequently, loans become a recourse, further exacerbating their debt burden.
The third challenge is the high cost of borrowing, with interest rates between 5% and 16% on 10-year government bonds, compared to near-zero to negative rates in Europe and America.
For sub-Saharan African economies, interest repayments constitute the highest expenditure portion– and fastest-growing expenditure–of budgets.
Lastly, the depreciation of many African currencies against major international currencies has triggered inflation. For example, the Botswanan Pula and the South African Rand have lost about 8% of value against the US dollar and the euro since the outbreak of the pandemic.
To recover better, Mr. Guterres has called for debt relief, while advocating for a transition to low-carbon, climate-resilient growth that will create millions of green jobs and ensure sustainable production and consumption.
Addressing these challenges requires bridging inequalities based on income, gender and race, says Mr. Guterres. He continues to advocate for equity in global liquidity and has proposed a set of innovative solutions to financing post-pandemic recovery.
For example, the UN Chief has urged the IMF to increase its financial support to African countries under its Special Drawing Rights facility – a monetary reserve currency that countries in financial stress can draw from.